Iran Cracks Down on Dissent

Iran Cracks Down on Dissent, Parading Examples in Streets
By NEIL MacFARQUHAR
June 24, 2007
New York Times

Iran is in the throes of one of its most ferocious crackdowns on dissent in years, with the government focusing on labor leaders, universities, the press, women’s rights advocates, a former nuclear negotiator and Iranian-Americans, three of whom have been in prison for more than six weeks.

The shift is occurring against the backdrop of an economy so stressed that although Iran is the world’s second-largest oil exporter [this is incorrect, it is the fourth-largest] , it is on the verge of rationing gasoline. At the same time, the nuclear standoff with the West threatens to bring new sanctions.

The hard-line administration of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, analysts say, faces rising pressure for failing to deliver on promises of greater prosperity from soaring oil revenue. It has been using American support for a change in government as well as a possible military attack as a pretext to hound his opposition and its sympathizers.[...]

Young men wearing T-shirts deemed too tight or haircuts seen as too Western have been paraded bleeding through Tehran’s streets by uniformed police officers who force them to suck on plastic jerrycans, a toilet item Iranians use to wash their bottoms. In case anyone misses the point, it is the official news agency Fars distributing the pictures of what it calls “riffraff.” Far bloodier photographs are circulating on blogs and on the Internet.[...]



The National Security Council sent a stern three-page warning to all the country’s newspaper editors detailing banned topics, including the rise in gasoline prices or other economic woes like possible new international sanctions, negotiations with the United States over the future of Iraq, civil society movements and the Iranian-American arrests. [...]

Analysts trace the broadening crackdown to a March speech by Ayatollah Khamenei, whose pronouncements carry the weight of law. He warned that no one should damage national unity when the West was waging psychological war on Iran. The country has been under fire, particularly from the United States, which accuses it of trying to develop nuclear weapons and fomenting violence in Iraq.[...]

The three Iranian-Americans are being held in the notorious Section 209 of Evin Prison, the wing controlled by the Intelligence Ministry, and have been denied visits by their lawyers or relatives. Iran recognizes only their Iranian nationality and has dismissed any diplomatic efforts to intervene. A rally to demand their release is set for Wednesday outside the United Nations.[...]

“People don’t want to come to conferences, they don’t even want to talk on the phone,” said Abbas Milani, the director of the Iranian studies program at Stanford University. “The regime has created an atmosphere of absolute terror.” [...]

Not that everyone has been intimidated. More than 50 leading economists published a harshly worded, open letter to the president saying his policies were bringing economic ruin. High unemployment persists, there has been little foreign investment and inflation is galloping, with gasoline alone jumping 25 percent this spring.

Gasoline rationing is expected within a month, with consumers so anxious about it, reported the Web site Ruz, financed by the Dutch government, that skirmishes broke out in long lines at some pumps on June 17.

Full article

Iran Gasoline Rationing Provokes Panic Buying

by Reuters
17 June 2007

Some Iranians are stocking up on gasoline amid uncertainty over when a delayed rationing scheme will take effect, an official from a body representing pump stations was quoted as saying on Saturday.

Nasser Raisifar said fuel station managers were concerned about the situation in Iran -- OPEC's second largest oil exporter - with long queues forming in some places and even reports of fights breaking out between car owners.

Despite big energy reserves, Iran lacks refining capacity to meet domestic fuel demand, which analysts say is rising at about 10 % a year. Heavy subsidies which drain state coffers make fuel so cheap it encourages waste, analysts say.

The first phase of gasoline rationing started on Thursday, limiting fuel that drivers of government cars can buy. But ordinary Iranians still do not know when the full plan will be implemented and what their quota of subsidised fuel will be.

"Uncertainty and not trusting (government) decisions lead many to fill their tanks continuously and this caused long queues at fuel stations," Raisifar, from the association of fuel station managers, told the semi-official Mehr News Agency.

"This shows people are stocking up," he said.

His comments seemed to be at odds with statements by Iranian officials that consumption has fallen since the gasoline price was increased by 25 % to 1,000 rials (11 U.S. cents) per litre in May -- still among the world's cheapest.

Drivers must also produce electronic "smart" cards to buy any fuel.

Iran has to import about 40 % of daily consumption estimated at 75 million or more litres, a sensitive issue as world powers have threatened to ratchet up U.N. sanctions over Iran's nuclear programme.

Officials have sent conflicting signals about when full rationing would be in place. Some say it might be on June 22. MPs have said fuel above the rationed quota would be offered at market rates but no official announcement has been made.

"Fighting among car owners, very long queues ... have created insecurity," Raisifar said. "Fuel station managers are concerned about the situation."

The United States, which is leading efforts to isolate Iran over its atomic plans, has said Iran's gasoline imports are a point of "leverage". Washington accuses Iran of seeking to build nuclear weapons, a charge Tehran denies.

Cargo ship sinks at Bandar Abbas pier

LONDON, June 10 (IranMania)

Following devastating tropical storm, Cyclone Gonu, which hit Persian Gulf region a cargo ship sank in the coastal waters of Haghani jetty in Bandar Abbas on Wednesday, it was announced, IRNA reported.

Speaking to IRNA, Colonel Asghar Ghotbzadeh said the ship had already been seized by coastal guards for illegal transport of crude oil.

Following the incident, all crew on board were evacuated and are all in good health conditions, he said.

Cyclone Gonu Batters Southern Iran 9:30am Hormuz

By Ryan Flinn and Aaron Sheldrick
June 7 (Bloomberg)

2am EST
7am GMT
10am Dubai
10am Muscat
9:30am Iran

Cyclone Gonu, the worst to hit the Arabian Peninsula in more than 60 years, battered southern Iran, prompting authorities to close schools and universities, cancel some flights and evacuate thousands of people from coastal areas.

The Health Ministry put hospitals on alert in southern Hormuzgan and Sistan-Baluchistan provinces late yesterday as the storm approached, the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency reported. The cyclone's outer winds knocked out electricity power lines in the port cities of Konarak and Chabahar, as people took refuge in shopping malls, IRNA said.

Gonu's center was 88 kilometers (55 miles) south of the town of Jask on the southern coast of Iran at 3:30 a.m. today, according to the latest U.S. Navy Joint Typhoon Warning Center advisory. Gonu's winds fell to 83 kilometers per hour as the storm moved north-northwest across the Gulf of Oman at 13 kilometers per hour.

The storm hit the east coast of Oman yesterday, where the Sultanate declared a state of emergency, ordering people to take shelter and shutting schools and offices until June 10. There were no immediate reports of casualties in either country.

Ships continued to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway between Iran and Oman at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, Associated Press reported, citing Suresh Nair of the Gulf Agency Co. shipping firm. At least a quarter of the world's oil supplies passes through the strait.

Oil Platforms

Gonu probably won't threaten Iran's oil platforms in the Persian Gulf because they are far from the forecasted path of the cyclone, AP cited Bahram Narimanian, a spokesman for Iran's Offshore Oil Company, as saying yesterday.

In the southeastern coastal city of Chabahar, 4,000 university students were evacuated to higher ground yesterday, IRNA reported.

The Islamic Republic of Iran Air Lines yesterday canceled all flights from Konarak for 48 hours, IRNA added.

Oman closed all its seaports and oil-export terminals two days ago as the government suspended oil and gas exports, shipping executives and oil traders said. They said they didn't know how long exports would remain suspended.

Oman sits on the southeast coast of the Arabian Peninsula and produces about 700,000 barrels of crude a day. It borders Yemen, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Suspending Operations

Fujairah port in the United Arab Emirates suspended all offshore bunkering operations, including fuel oil and gasoil, and the movement of utility boats two days ago because of the storm. The port is one of world's three largest for fuel oil bunkering, along with Rotterdam and Singapore.

Saudi Aramco, the world's biggest state-controlled oil company, said yesterday it doesn't expect Gonu to hurt production or exports from Saudi Arabia's eastern province.

Crude oil for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange traded at $66.00 a barrel at 8:33 a.m. Singapore time today. It rose 35 cents to $65.96 a barrel yesterday.

Gonu, which means a bag made of palm leaves in the language of the Maldives, is the most powerful storm to hit the Arabian Peninsula since records began in 1945, AP reported.

Earlier this week, it was a Category 5 storm, the strongest on the Saffir-Simpson scale, as it churned across the northern Arabian Sea.

Iran Adding Attack Boats in Persian Gulf

By Tony Capaccio
June 6 (Bloomberg)

Iran is increasing its fleet of small attack boats capable of challenging warships and disrupting oil traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the sea route for two-fifths of the world's daily supply of crude oil, the U.S. Navy says. xxx

Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps already has more than 1,000 of the speedboats ``and continues to add boats armed with anti- ship cruise missiles,'' said Robert Althage, spokesman for the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence. xxx

``Iran still states that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps will employ swarming tactics in a conflict,'' Althage said in an e-mail. Naval intelligence, in its latest report on threats, said an attack against U.S. forces and commercial tankers ``could include over 100 boats in coordinated groups of 20 to 30 approaching simultaneously from multiple axes.'' xxx

The U.S. has two carrier groups in the Persian Gulf. The commander of these forces, Vice Admiral Kevin Cosgriff, said the attack boats have``a significant military capability.'' His fear is that Iran's central leadership might not have enough control over this Revolutionary Guard force to ensure against unauthorized attacks. xxx

``I'm fairly comfortable that the regular Iranian navy and air force has a pretty good command-and-control system -- the key word is`control,''' he said. ``I don't have the same sense with the Revolutionary Guard.'' xxx

``Is there a rigorous, disciplined chain of command where people pay attention?'' Cosgriff said. ``In some instances, the answer would be yes. In other instances I've had some concern that people may be prone to miscalculation.'' xxx

``Somebody who gets fired up based on firebrand rhetoric is what I am speaking about,'' he said. xxx

Mines, Torpedoes, Missiles xxx

The boats -- up to 70 feet long and capable of speeds up to 57 miles per hour -- are armed with torpedoes and rocket- propelled grenades as well as cruise missiles and also are used to lay mines. The U.S. estimates Iran has 5,000 sea mines. xxx

Cosgriff and other U.S. naval officers say they can defend against this threat. Still, attacks on tankers and a few sunken ships could disrupt traffic through the chokepoint of the world's most important oil transit route. xxx

Iran launched a much smaller fleet of these attack boats against U.S. ships and U.S.-flagged tankers in the Persian Gulf in late 1987 through mid-1988 after the Reagan administration sided with Iraq in its war with the Islamic Republic. xxx

The ships were able to lay mines, attack ships and disrupt oil traffic. They damaged at least one tanker traveling under the U.S. flag as well as the frigate USS Samuel Roberts. xxx

Cosgriff said the U.S. now has four minesweepers deployed to the Gulf and the British Navy has two. The coalition ``routinely'' practices minesweeping and ``we are actually quite good at it,'' he said. xxx

Defense Against `Swarming' xxx

Cosgriff, in a telephone interview yesterday from the United Arab Emirates, said the U.S. Navy has ``devised various tactics and other ways of coping with'' the swarming tactics of the small attack boats. xxx

In addition, ``there are some limitations'' to launching an attack by these boats, he said. ``You just don't get 1,000 or 500 or even 20 of anything under way and tightly orchestrated over a large body of water to create a specific effect at a specific time and specific place. They have their own challenges.'' xxx

Officers of the aircraft carrier USS Stennis in the Persian Gulf offered similar assurances in onboard interviews June 1. xxx

``We spend a lot of time making sure we have eyes out for that sort of thing,'' said Commander Chris Rentfrow, director of the Stennis's self-defense nerve center. xxx

Cheney's Warning xxx

The Stennis arrived in the Gulf 12 days after Vice President Dick Cheney spoke on the warship, highlighting the capability of the two carrier groups to protect sea lanes and send a warning that the U.S. won't tolerate Iran developing a nuclear capability. xxx

The Stennis was joined by the Nimitz and the Marine Corps's Bonhomme Richard amphibious assault group in sailing through the Strait of Hormuz to conduct joint training exercises -- nine ships with 17,000 personnel in the largest daylight transit since 2003. xxx

The maneuvers mark the second time in two months that two of the Navy's 11 aircraft carriers are in the Gulf for joint exercises. The Stennis exercised in March with the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower. Before that, the last time more than one carrier deployed in the Gulf was March 2003 for the Iraq invasion. xxx

The current exercise will continue through tomorrow. xxx

Raytheon System xxx

The centerpiece of the Stennis's defenses is a Raytheon Co. Shipboard Shelf-Defense System installed last year that synthesizes data from the carrier's radar and anti-submarine sonar as well as Aegis air defense information gathered by the flattop's escort vessels into a single picture displayed on consoles. xxx

Stennis operators can track up to 200 vessels or aircraft simultaneously, Rentfrow said in an interview. Two large digital maps showed the carrier was in the middle of the northern Persian Gulf about 37 miles from Busher, Iran. There was no significant Iranian naval or
air presence. xxx

The system can ``absolutely'' deal with Iran's small boats, Rentfrow said. ``We practice a lot with these ships in terms of how to defend the zone around the carrier,'' he said. xxx

One method is an old-fashioned .50 caliber machine gun on the vessel's stern, manned by a gunner in a grimy red t-shirt peering through binoculars into a hot, hazy Gulf horizon.
xxx

Senior officers of the Stennis, in interviews June 1 and May 31 onboard the ship, said the strike groups aren't exercising specifically to counter Iran but were practicing generic tactics to counter submarines, aircraft
and missile attacks. xxx

This week the Stennis and Bonhomme Richard groups also planned an exercise practicing earthquake relief. xxx

Stennis Strike Group Commander Rear Admiral Kevin Quinn, in response to a question, said the deployment of the two carrier groups isn't intended to send a message to Iran. ``I don't see it that way, but I'm the tactical guy,'' he said. ``My focus has been on exercising maritime skills'' and providing air support for ground troops in Iraq. xxx

Intrade Airstrike-Iran Options (Update 3)

Airstrike.Iran.Jun07 : $2.60
Airstrike.Iran.Sep07 : $13.70
Airstrike.Iran.Dec07 : $17.40

Average : $11.23, down from $22.00 on March 29th.

The Case for Bombing Iran

The Case for Bombing Iran
I hope and pray that President Bush will do it.
BY NORMAN PODHORETZ
May 30, 2007

[...]Since a ground invasion of Iran must be ruled out for many different reasons, the job would have to be done, if it is to be done at all, by a campaign of air strikes. Furthermore, because Iran's nuclear facilities are dispersed, and because some of them are underground, many sorties and bunker-busting munitions would be required. And because such a campaign is beyond the capabilities of Israel, and the will, let alone the courage, of any of our other allies, it could be carried out only by the United States. Even then, we would probably be unable to get at all the underground facilities, which means that, if Iran were still intent on going nuclear, it would not have to start over again from scratch. But a bombing campaign would without question set back its nuclear program for years to come, and might even lead to the overthrow of the mullahs. [...]

http://www.opinionjournal.com/federation/feature/?id=110010139

Gasoline Rationing in Iran

IEA Monthly Oil Market Report May 2007 - page 15

In our last commentary on Iran’s gasoline market (Oil Market Report dated 11 October 2006), wespeculated about how the country would tackle its galloping gasoline demand, which had led to asignificant surge in imports (some 40% of total demand, given the lack of domestic refining capacity) andwhich was being prompted by possibly the cheapest retail prices in the world (as in many oil producing countries, cheap fuel is almost considered an entitlement). The issue was quite sensitive, we then argued, because the government had to balance financial imperatives (the growing burden of subsidies and imports) and political considerations (triggering social unrest by rationing demand and/or raising prices, which would also likely stoke inflation), not to mention the issue of tackling waste (spills at service stations and the poor fuel economy of most of the Iranian vehicle fleet).

The government, though, prevaricated for a few months, releasing instead extra funds in January 2007 (about $2.5 billion) to finance gasoline imports until March (the end of the Iranian fiscal year). In late March, however, both the Majlis (parliament) and the Council of Guardians finally approved a long debated scheme to ration supply and raise prices, which will reportedly be implemented from mid-May. Under the scheme, private car owners will be allocated 90 litres per month (300 litres for taxis), priced at Rials 1,000 per litre (approximately 12 cents) instead of Rials 800 per litre (that is, a 25% price increase). Supply above the quota will be priced at Rials 5,000 per litre (five times more than subsidized prices and roughly equal to gasoline’s import cost). In addition, the National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company (NIORDC) intends to launch a five-year refinery upgrade and expansion plan, aimed at raising throughput to 2.9 mb/d from the current 1.6 mb/d.

Ahmadinejad Says Nuclear Work Nearing "Peak"

Iran's President Says Nuclear Work Nearing "Peak"
By REUTERS
May 24, 2007

Iran's nuclear work is nearing a ``peak,'' President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Thursday, while the U.N. atomic watchdog chief said Tehran was probably at least three years from making atom bombs even if it chose to do so.

Ahmadinejad dismissed Western pressure on Iran to halt its nuclear drive. ``With God's help the path to completely enjoying all nuclear capacity is near its end and we are close to the peak,'' he told a rally in the central town of Isfahan.

``The Iranian nation today has industrial nuclear technology and ... it will never retreat even one step from this path.''Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons, as the West suspects, saying its program aims purely to generate electricity.

Underlining what he called the growing risk of a major confrontation between the West and Iran, International Atomic Energy Agency head Mohamed ElBaradei appealed for the two sides to restart negotiations on a compromise as soon as possible.

``I tend, based on our analysis, to agree with people like John Negroponte and the new director of the CIA, who are saying that even if Iran wanted to go for a nuclear weapon, it would not be before the end of this decade or sometime in the middle of the next decade. In other words three to eight years from now,'' ElBaradei told a news conference in Luxembourg.

``Iran needs to suspend its enrichment activities as a confidence-building measure but the international community should do its utmost to engage Iran in comprehensive dialogue,'' he told a conference on nuclear non-proliferation.

In a report on Wednesday, the IAEA said Iran was making substantial advances in uranium enrichment, but repeated there was no evidence it was trying to ``weaponise'' nuclear material. Several months ago, ElBaradei predicted Iran was four to eight years away from being able to produce an atom bomb.

U.S. President George W. Bush said Washington would work with European, Russian and Chinese leaders to impose a third, stronger round of U.N. Security Council sanctions against Iran.

``The first thing these leaders have got to understand is that an Iran with a nuclear weapon would be incredibly destabilizing for the world. It's in their interests that we work collaboratively to continue to isolate that regime.''

CAUTIOUS ON SANCTIONS

Asked at a news conference whether he felt more stringent sanctions should now be discussed, Russian President Vladimir Putin stressed the need for more diplomacy.

``We shall work in cooperation with our partners, as we have always done in the past, not to prevent Iran from developing modern technology but to prevent it from creating a nuclear weapon,'' he said in Luxembourg.

Big powers last year offered Iran trade, technical and other incentives if it stopped enriching uranium first. But Iran refused that precondition and talks were called off before the U.N. Security Council imposed
a first set of sanctions.

EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana is assessing the scope for returning to negotiations. He is expected to meet Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani in Madrid late next week.

But ElBaradei voiced concern Tehran was moving toward confrontation with the world by speeding up its nuclear work. He said his priority was a compromise capping Iranian enrichment short of ``industrial-scale'' to minimize the risk of bombmaking.

He has angered Western powers by saying, in published remarks, that their strategy of insisting on no enrichment at all to prevent Iran gaining nuclear knowledge had been ''overtaken by events'' since Tehran could already refine uranium.

Diplomats said the U.S., British and French ambassadors to the IAEA planned to meet ElBaradei in his Vienna office on Friday to deliver a ``demarche'' over his remarks, which they saw as questioning Security Council strategy.

A diplomat close to the IAEA said ElBaradei was not trying to undermine the Security Council or United States.

``He's just asking these leaders to deal with reality. He is pleading for direct dialogue, between the U.S. and Iran in particular, to resolve the situation now ... instead of posturing while the number of (enrichment) centrifuges goes up.''

Pletka

http://www.aei.org/publications/filter.all,pubID.26209/pub_detail.asp

Klare On Naval Maneuvers

By Michael T. Klare

May 3, 2007

Today, the Nimitz is rapidly approaching the Persian Gulf, where it will join two other U.S. aircraft carriers and the French carrier Charles De Gaulle in the largest concentration of naval firepower in the region since the launching of the U.S. invasion of Iraq four years ago.

Why this concentration now? Officially, the Nimitz is on its way to the Gulf to replace the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, which is due to return to the United States for crew leave and ship maintenance after months on station. But the U.S. Central Command (Centcom), which exercises command authority over all U.S. forces in the Persian Gulf area, refuses to say when the Eisenhower will actually depart -- or even when the Nimitz will arrive.

For a time, at least, the United States will have three carrier battle groups in the region. The USS John C. Stennis is the third. Each carrier is accompanied by a small flotilla of cruisers, destroyers, submarines, and support vessels, many equipped with Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles (TLAMs). Minimally, this gives modern meaning to the classic imperial term "gunboat diplomacy," which makes it all the stranger that the deployment of the Nimitz is covered in our media, if at all, as the most minor of news stories. And when the Nimitz sailed off into the Pacific last month on its way to the Gulf, it simply disappeared off media radar screens like some classic "lost patrol."

http://www.motherjones.com/cgi-bin/print_article.pl?url=http://www.motherjones.com/commentary/tomdispatch/klare_constantino_nimitz.html

Klare Predicts War with Iran

Three Charges in the Case for War
By Michael T. Klare
March 2007

Sometime this spring or summer, barring an unexpected turnaround by Tehran, President Bush is likely to go on national television and announce that he has ordered American ships and aircraft to strike at military targets inside Iran. We must still sit through several months of soap opera at the United Nations in New York and assorted foreign capitals before this comes to pass, and it is always possible that a diplomatic breakthrough will occur -- let it be so! -- but I am convinced that Bush has already decided an attack is his only option and the rest is a charade he must go through to satisfy his European allies. The proof of this, I believe, lies half-hidden in recent public statements of his, which, if pieced together, provide a casus belli, or formal list of justifications, for going to war.

http://www.tomdispatch.com/index.mhtml?pid=169271

Background

Known as Persia until 1935, Iran became an Islamic republic in 1979 after the ruling monarchy was overthrown and the shah was forced into exile. Conservative clerical forces established a theocratic system of government with ultimate political authority vested in a learned religious scholar referred to commonly as the Supreme Leader who, according to the constitution, is accountable only to the Assembly of Experts. Iranian-US relations have been strained since a group of Iranian students seized the US Embassy in Tehran on 4 November 1979 and held it until 20 January 1981. During 1980-88, Iran fought a bloody, indecisive war with Iraq that eventually expanded into the Persian Gulf and led to clashes between US Navy and Iranian military forces between 1987 and 1988. Iran has been designated a state sponsor of terrorism for its activities in Lebanon and elsewhere in the world and remains subject to US economic sanctions and export controls because of its continued involvement. Following the election of the reformist Hojjat ol-Eslam Mohammad KHATAMI as president in 1997 and similarly a reformist Majles (parliament) in 2000, a campaign to foster political reform in response to popular dissatisfaction was initiated. The movement floundered as conservative politicians prevented reform measures from being enacted, increased repressive measures, and made electoral gains against reformers. Starting with nationwide municipal elections in 2003 and continuing through Majles elections in 2004, conservatives reestablished control over Iran's elected government institutions, which culminated with the August 2005 inauguration of an ultra-conservative layman as president.